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Tomasz Tunguz

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Posts

Aftermarket Harnesses

Yeltsin in the AI Aisle

Google's Cloud Revenue Converges to NVIDIA's Growth Rate

AI Engineering Productivity is Anything But Normal

Open Models Tack Toward the Frontier

The Blank Slate AI Strategy

The Harness Is the New Battleground

The AI Colander

Three Years In

8.9 Million AI Users

The AI Preflight Check

The $10B FDE Boom

AI Worldviews

Search

Most AI Work Can Wait

The CIO's Choices are Clear in 2026

When AI Costs More Than the Engineer

What If There Is No Moat Yet?

Full Sail on Asynchronous Inference

Defending Against AI-Powered Attackers

The Quietest Part of Startupland isn't so Quiet

So You Want to Sell Inference

Databricks Widens the Lead on the Yellow Brick Token Path

5x for Free : The Local Coding Stack

The Golden Age of AI Applications

A CEO's Cost of Capital Advantage

The AI Glass Ceiling

The Substitution Wave in AI

The Minimill of AI

Local in Reality

Intelligence Per Dollar

The Thriving Ecosystem of Open Models

The AI Skepticism Map

Skill Distillation

Security in the Age of AI Agents: Office Hours with Jonathan Jaffe

Software After AI

Agent Gravity : Who's Running Your Agents

Plastic User Interfaces

SpaceX's Limitless Ambition : An AI Conglomerate

The Unsustainable Subsidy

Observations on Writing with AI

The First Derivative of Inference

What Would AI Email Cost?

The 6 Messages That Actually Matter

2026 Theory GTM Survey

Localmaxxing

Securing the Agentic Enterprise

AI at Discount

Optimizing Software Factories

When Everyone Is a Key Person in Your Company

All the AI You Need for 8 Ads per Day

This Week's Sign the Apocalypse Isn't Upon Us

Timing Cashflows of Your Sales Commissions and Your Customers

Darwinian Specialization in AI

The $112 Billion Quarter

The Three Questions in AI Sales

GPU Spot Prices Surge 114% in Six Weeks

Competitive Strategy in the Age of AI

Intelligence About Business

A $10 Billion Call Option

AI Begins to Specialize

A Proactive System of Intelligence for Security

The Beginning of Scarcity in AI

The Jagged Frontier of AI Security

Founders, Equip Your Agents

The AI Problem Matrix

Emerging from the Mythos

The AI Problem Matrix: Where the Largest Opportunity Hides

When Will Anthropic Surpass NVIDIA?

Pocket Power : From State of the Art to Your Phone in 23 Months

Tokenmaxxing

Marketing in the Agentic Era

Veblen & Jevon Walk Into a Data Center

A New Axis of Competition

AI's Bundling Moment

Cursor, Kimi & the Open Source Imperative

The Pricing Power of Agents

The Robotic Tortoise & the Robotic Hare

The 12x Bet on AI

The 12x Bet on AI

You Are Responsible for Your Agent

Hello, Claude? Are You There?

One Billion Lost Packages

The Marginal Hire

The Org Chart Math Behind AI-Native Speed

Is This Tomasz's Agent?

The Sword of Damocles in Software

Data Center Intelligence at the Price of a Laptop

Not Prompts, Blueprints

Would You Buy Generic AI?

Databricks Overtakes Snowflake

SRE Diaries: Hunting Tool Loop Patterns in the Julius Agent

The Game on the Field Has Changed

Is AI Doing Less & Less?

Why Saudi Aramco Isn't a Proxy for SpaceX

AdSense for AI

FIXED: Empty Response Issue with Fireworks.ai Tasks

SpaceX, OpenAI & Anthropic IPOs : A $3 Trillion Stress Test

9 Observations from Building with AI Agents

A Third, A Third, A Surprising Third

Will I Be Paid in Tokens?

The AI Acqui-Hire Wave

The 2026 Rotation

Can You Fly That Thing?

How Markets Price AI Risk

Google's 52x AI Growth

The Other Leverage in Software & AI

Building Developer Infrastructure at Scale : Office Hours with Jim Everingham

Dissecting the Internet's Most Novel Creature

Moltbook & the Persistence of Participation Inequality

Moltbook: The First AI-Only Social Network

$281b From One Customer

A Coxswain on Your Shoulder

Is Your Margin My Opportunity in Software?

The Model T Comes to Silicon Valley

AI Managing AI

When the Market Questions Relevance

The Postmodern Data Stack is AI

Software That Debugs Itself While I Sleep

A Third Time Up the Roller Coaster

Dead Companies Walking

Eleven Steps to the Epiphany[^1]

Open APIs Are Over

Trajectory

The Text Box Isn't Enough

The Done List

Gross Profit per Token

My Favorite Books of 2025

Motive S-1 : How 7 Key Metrics Stack Up Against Samsara

Scoring 2025's Predictions

Scoring 2025's Predictions

11 Predictions for 2026

Thursday is Podcast Day

A Flash of Deflation

The Bifurcation in the AI Market

Is Your AI Funded by Junk Bonds?

The Average Founder Ages 6 Months Each Year

The Two Context Databases Powering Enterprise AI

The AI Value Gap : Where Does the $7,000 Per Seat Go?

Streaming Comes into the Fold

From 10 to 31 Tasks Daily : The Agent Inflection Point

Top 10 Posts of 2025

Vercel's AI Sales Agent : 10 SDRs Down to 1 in Six Weeks

Private Equity : The New Distribution Channel for AI Startups

The Bacon & the Skillet: When Does the AI Market Congeal?

The Scaling Wall Was A Mirage

What 375 AI Builders Actually Ship

Teaching Local Models to Call Tools Like Claude

Running Out of AI

Datadog: As Reliable as Your Golden Retriever

Are We Being Railroaded by AI?

A 1 in 15,787 Chance Blog Post

OpenAI's $1 Trillion Infrastructure Spend

Small Data Becomes Big Data

$555B of Cloud Spend

The Growth Premium Persists in SaaS Valuations

Product-Market Fit is No Longer Static

Engineering for the AI-Native Era : Office Hours with Calvin French-Owen

From Columns to Rewards: Automating the Two Pillars That Drive Modern AI

Where Is Your AI Running?

Good Morning & Good Luck

The Modern Data Stack Enters Its Bundling Phase

Is Token Consumption Slowing Down?

OpenAI Calls Codex a Senior Engineer

Congratulations, Robot. You've Been Promoted!

A Founder's Guide to AI Implementation

A Founder's Guide to Customer Success

A Founder's Guide to Data Strategy & Analytics

A Founder's Guide to Go-to-Market Strategy

A Founder's Guide to Product Management

Startup Guides & Resources

From Books to Prompts: The Instant Future of Productivity

Building Sales Teams in the Age of AI : Office Hours with Chris Klayko of Databricks

Circular Financing: Does Nvidia's $110B Bet Echo the Telecom Bubble?

Data & AI Infrastructure Are Fusing

Adding Complexity Reduced My AI Cost by 41%

From A to B Without Inventing Letters

The Efficient Frontier of AI

The Math of Hypergrowth: Two Paths to the Same Goal

Is T3D2 Dead? Has AI Killed It?

The Post-AI Org Chart

Beyond a Trillion : The Token Race

How AI Tools Differ from Human Tools

Coffee, Omelettes, and Five-Course Meals: A New Software Menu

Developer Relations at Theory

10 Months into AI Agents : Which Are Used Most?

Two Data Giants, One Revenue Milestone

What It Feels Like to Build in AI

A Living Market Map