Paul Kedrosky
Kedrosky Daily: Lowest US credit risk; native unemployment rises
Rough Notes: Jan 26, 2026
Nvidia Under Pressure: Coreweave Investment Plus Google TPUs
Kedrosky Daily: US bond spread lowest in 30 years;unemployment rises for natives only
Rough Notes: Jan 25, 2026
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: US Corp Spread Near Low; Unemployment Diverges After 2025
Claude Code and OpenAI's Codex Code Red
Rough Notes, Weekend Edition: Jan 24-25, 2026
Rough Notes: Jan 23, 2026
Kedrosky Daily: TTF outperformed indexes; iOS app growth surged
Bonus Chart: App Growth Soaring in App Store
Everything That AIs Must Converge
Rough Notes: Jan 22, 2026
Are Zero-Return Decades an Outlier? No
Kedrosky Daily: Private credit assets surge by 2025; Blue Owl Tech redemptions spike in Q4 2025
Four Takeaways from Microsoft's Satya Nadella at WEF Today
Rough Notes: Jan 20, 2026
Rough Notes: Jan 19, 2026
Rough Notes: Jan 16, 2026
Kedrosky Daily: Prediction market volume hit $8bn; Humanoids market may top $200bn
Kedrosky Daily: Prediction market volume soars to 9bn by late 2025; humanoids market may exceed 200bn by 2035
Rough Notes: Jan 14, 2026
Kedrosky Daily: Economy importance rises sharply Nvidia leads AI compute sales
Kedrosky Daily: Tech job growth stalls in 2024; tariff lawsuits surge after Supreme Court hearing
Rough Notes: Jan 12, 2026
Kedrosky Daily: S&P 500 outperforms Magnificent Seven; more bonds upgraded than downgraded
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: Organ meat sales rise through 2025; fallen angels outnumber rising stars in 2020
Kedrosky Daily: AI loan growth outpaces fund exposure; S&P 500 earnings peak then normalize
Kedrosky Daily: Gas prices hit lows near 3 dollars; Oracle CDS risk rises sharply
Kedrosky Daily: Art loan portfolio doubles by 2027; Venezuela crude reserves triple by reclassification
Kedrosky Daily: Wyoming snow cover hits record low; California snow cover ranks well above median
Kedrosky Daily: US gaming revenue doubled since 2020; China investment peaks while consumption lags
Kedrosky Daily: Gold rose 72 Bitcoin fell 6 consumer confidence hits two year low
Kedrosky Daily: Gold rose 72 Bitcoin fell 6 US confidence hits two year low; Consumer confidence drops five months straight
Kedrosky Daily: Marijuana use rises in seniors; home sizes shrink since 2015
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: Home sizes drop to decade low; GPUs use 41 percent of AI power
Kedrosky Daily: Aspen hosts top home sales; semiconductor jobs rise then fall
Morgan Stanley's Banking Lead, Debt Buyers Bumping Against Limits, AI in Space, etc.
Private AI Companies Are the New Public AI Companies
An Oracle CDS Lesson: Inevitable, But Also Misunderstood
Which AI Inning Are We In?
Kedrosky Daily: Largest cities shift to low income countries; bank credit share drops to thirteen percent
Weekend Thinking: A Cul-de-Sac With a View
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: Oracle bond yields spike as US population growth shifts to immigration
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: Oracle bond yields surge past junk; net immigration drives US growth
The Oracle of Fermi Speaks
Kedrosky Daily: Hyperscaler capex triples by 2026; Forty percent of Russell 2000 firms lose money
The Oracle of Yore, and Early Q3 GDP Mysteries
Kedrosky Daily: Hyperscaler capex to quintuple by 2026; Small caps face persistent earnings losses
Kedrosky Daily: Hyperscaler capex to double by 2026 Oracle share triples
Vibe Hacking, S&P, and Why Howard Marks is Terrified
Kedrosky Daily: Istanbul tops global traffic delays Chicago beats LA
Kedrosky Daily: Istanbul tops global traffic delays 118h Chicago leads Americas 112h
Talking To Paul Krugman About AI
Kedrosky Daily: Pacific Northwest rain exceeds 12 inches, US seniors hold 32% wealth
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: Microsoft capex-to-sales hits 25% surpassing Exxon US passport issuance peaks at 24M
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: Microsoft capex doubles Exxon’s by 2025, US passports hit records
Weekend Thinking Dec 5, 2025
AEP Wants to Dump 750 MW of Data Center Power. Why?
Kedrosky Daily: US automakers lag in fuel economy China leads global EV sales 2024
Taiwan as AI Geopolitics Hinge
Does Gemini Show That Scaling Still Works? No.
Kedrosky Daily: US power outages hit decade high, MicroStrategy debt tops bitcoin value
Private Credit Talks Back
AI Capex in H1 2025 Prevented a Recession
Kedrosky Daily: Western US snow low, humans dominate mammal biomass
Ex-AI Capex, the US was in Recession in H1 2025
Kedrosky Daily: Low Western US Snow Cover, Humans Dominate Mammal Biomass
Kedrosky Daily: Military Base Zips Lead Crypto Returns, ORCL CDS Doubles
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: China’s trade surplus nears $965B Bitcoin mining breaks even
Me Media Watch: My WSJ Picks for Books on Work, Historical Bubbles, etc.
Has Corporate AI Adoption Stalled in Low Teens? Doubtful
AI Capex Risk and the End of Scaling
Kedrosky Daily: Nasdaq Bitcoin Diverge Mid 2024 AI Debt Surpasses Banks by 2025
AI Capex Risk as Predictable Engineering
Kedrosky Daily: China saving rate; AI mega-deals in VC
Kedrosky Daily: China saving rate stays high post-pandemic AI mega-deals dominate VC
Rogue AI, From RAND to Nvidia: Selection is the Signal
Kedrosky Daily: China triples robot installs, doubles US manufacturing value
Data Center Operators are Cheerily Uneasy About the Future
Kedrosky Daily: Driver error causes 75% of US crashes, YouTube leads streaming gains
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: US cybercrime costs hit $16.6B China leads quantum funding
On Benchmark Games, Gemini, and Declining Returns to Scale
Stranded Assets and the AI-Driven Gas Turbine Renaissance
Kedrosky Daily: Crypto Fear Hits Extreme as Market Drops 30 Percent
Kedrosky Daily: Crypto Fear Hits Extreme as Market Drops 30 Percent
Proxy Test 6
Kedrosky Daily: Bitcoin mining near break-even, MicroStrategy shares drop sharply
Sendy Test 23
Testing Daily Kedrosky
Sendy Post 13
Kedrosky Daily: Oracle’s backlog 58% OpenAI, big firms add 151K jobs small firms lose 88K
Sendy Test 12
Sendy test 4
Sendy Test 3
Kedrosky Daily: ChatGPT users 55+ hit 28 percent in Q3 2025, leads US AI usage
Testing
Media: Recent Bloomberg Odd Lots Appearance
Updates: GenAI Adoption Shifts, Chinese Models, etc.
Kedrosky Daily: Google leads AI model race 84 percent tech IP growth outpaces others
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: Asia’s emissions surpass West, youth disconnection rises US UK
On AI CapEx Apologists
Kedrosky Daily: Retail share in SPX 0DTE options tops 50 US equity risk peaks
Kedrosky Daily: Employer health costs surge fivefold, global power demand doubles
The Great Credit Convergence
Global Data Center Investment Passes Oil Investment
Kedrosky Daily: Employer health costs up 5x, electricity demand doubles by 2035
Meta: Purging of Dissidents vs Open Rebellion
Kedrosky Daily: AI data center funding gap 27 percent construction spending surges
Kedrosky Daily: China births drop 70% since 1963, AI firms hit $100B fast
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: NYC jobs shift to health care women 70+ marathon surge
Four Things: OpenAI's Backstop, CoreWeave CDS, Oregon, and Humanity's TAM
Kedrosky Daily: Labor growth plummets 80 percent, VFX jobs drop 33 percent
Kedrosky Daily: Grok lags in AI adoption, AI data center borrowing hits $126B
Kedrosky Daily: Grok lags behind ChatGPT Gemini AI tech borrowing hits $126B in 2025
Updates: Bragawatts, Nvidia Theater, Me Stuff, etc.
Kedrosky Daily: US weekend box office hits multi-decade low, bond maturities rise
Kedrosky Daily: US Box Office Hits Multi-Decade Low, Convertible Bond Maturities Rise
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: Oman jumps from unlisted in 2015 to 4th in 2025, highlighting significant imp…
Kedrosky Daily (Commodities edition): Healthcare and service roles exhibit minimal core AI development compared to …
Kedrosky Daily (Commodities edition): AI recruiting tools dominate healthcare sectors like dental and nursing, high…
Four Ideas (Life sciences edition): AI Integration in Healthcare Tech and Diagnostics
Four Ideas (AI edition): AI Transformations and Market Realignments
Four Ideas (Macro edition): Interest Rate Moves and Structural Economic Changes
Four Ideas, Sunday Edition: AI Transformation in Healthcare and Industry Shifts
Oct 24, 2025 Update: Nvidia as Pop Mart, Power, Policy, etc.
Four Ideas (Commodities edition): Commodity Trends and Geopolitical Dynamics
Four Ideas (Life sciences edition): Healthcare AI, Health Tech Investments, AI in Healthcare, FDA Breakthrough Devices
Four Ideas (Macro edition): Emerging Macro Trends Impact on Non-Obvious Sectors
Four Ideas, Sunday Edition:
Quick Hits: AI Capex and Consumer Spending
Minsky Moments and AI CapEx
Four Ideas (Energy edition): Renewable Energy Grid Innovations and EV Shifts
Four Ideas (Commodities edition): Global Commodity Trends and Implications
Rougher Notes, Oct 15, 2025: Blackouts, TeraWulf, Debt, etc.
Four Ideas (Life sciences edition): Healthcare AI Innovation and Market Dynamics
Quick Hits: AI Capex is Eating ... San Francisco
Four Ideas (AI edition): AI Impact on Utilities and Travel
Quick Hits: An India of Incremental Power Ahead
Quick Hits: The Data Center Growth Slowdown
Four Ideas (Macro edition): Global Fragmentation, Reserve Diversification, Geoeconomics Impact, Industrial Growth
Four Ideas, Sunday Edition:
Quick Hits: Roger Rabbit's Data Center, Colo Spin, etc.
Why AI Capex isn't a Bubble: A Perez-ian Perspective
Four Ideas (Life sciences edition): Healthcare AI and MedTech Innovations
The Godfather and Oracle's Crap GPU Rental Returns
Four Ideas (AI edition): Unexpected Impacts of AI Advancements
Quick Hits: OpenAI's Mammoth AMD Deal
Four Ideas (Macro edition): Interest Rate Shifts, Geoeconomics, AI Adoption, Travel Experiences
Four Ideas, Sunday Edition:
LLMs, Shifting Baselines, and .400 Hitters
Quick Hits: 85% Margins for Data Centers? Yes, Please
Four Ideas (Commodities edition): Geoeconomic Shifts, Cocoa Rally, Commodity Traders, Gold Outlook
Quick Hit: Blackstone on Data Center Bubbles
Four Ideas (Life sciences edition): FDA, AI, Drone Delivery, Health Systems
Rougher Notes, Sep 30, 2025
Four Ideas (AI edition): AI-Driven Investment Shifts
Data Centers: More Money, Fewer Buyers
Four Ideas (Macro edition): Geoeconomic Strategies and Industrial Policy Shifts
Four Ideas, Sunday Edition:
Quick Update: Appearances, Financial Flywheels, etc.
Four Ideas (AI edition): AI-Driven Market and Policy Shifts
Four Ideas (Macro edition): Interest Rate Divergence, EM Currencies, EU Productivity, Real Estate Dynamics
Four Ideas, Sunday Edition:
Four Ideas (Energy edition): Solar Engineers, EV Battery Sustainability, Grid Innovation, Emerging Markets