Paul Kedrosky
The Oracle of Fermi Speaks
Kedrosky Daily: Hyperscaler capex triples by 2026; Forty percent of Russell 2000 firms lose money
The Oracle of Yore, and Early Q3 GDP Mysteries
Kedrosky Daily: Hyperscaler capex to quintuple by 2026; Small caps face persistent earnings losses
Kedrosky Daily: Hyperscaler capex to double by 2026 Oracle share triples
Vibe Hacking, S&P, and Why Howard Marks is Terrified
Kedrosky Daily: Istanbul tops global traffic delays Chicago beats LA
Kedrosky Daily: Istanbul tops global traffic delays 118h Chicago leads Americas 112h
Talking To Paul Krugman About AI
Kedrosky Daily: Pacific Northwest rain exceeds 12 inches, US seniors hold 32% wealth
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: Microsoft capex-to-sales hits 25% surpassing Exxon US passport issuance peaks at 24M
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: Microsoft capex doubles Exxon’s by 2025, US passports hit records
Weekend Thinking Dec 5, 2025
AEP Wants to Dump 750 MW of Data Center Power. Why?
Kedrosky Daily: US automakers lag in fuel economy China leads global EV sales 2024
Taiwan as AI Geopolitics Hinge
Does Gemini Show That Scaling Still Works? No.
Kedrosky Daily: US power outages hit decade high, MicroStrategy debt tops bitcoin value
Private Credit Talks Back
AI Capex in H1 2025 Prevented a Recession
Kedrosky Daily: Western US snow low, humans dominate mammal biomass
Ex-AI Capex, the US was in Recession in H1 2025
Kedrosky Daily: Low Western US Snow Cover, Humans Dominate Mammal Biomass
Kedrosky Daily: Military Base Zips Lead Crypto Returns, ORCL CDS Doubles
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: China’s trade surplus nears $965B Bitcoin mining breaks even
Me Media Watch: My WSJ Picks for Books on Work, Historical Bubbles, etc.
Has Corporate AI Adoption Stalled in Low Teens? Doubtful
AI Capex Risk and the End of Scaling
Kedrosky Daily: Nasdaq Bitcoin Diverge Mid 2024 AI Debt Surpasses Banks by 2025
AI Capex Risk as Predictable Engineering
Kedrosky Daily: China saving rate; AI mega-deals in VC
Kedrosky Daily: China saving rate stays high post-pandemic AI mega-deals dominate VC
Rogue AI, From RAND to Nvidia: Selection is the Signal
Kedrosky Daily: China triples robot installs, doubles US manufacturing value
Data Center Operators are Cheerily Uneasy About the Future
Kedrosky Daily: Driver error causes 75% of US crashes, YouTube leads streaming gains
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: US cybercrime costs hit $16.6B China leads quantum funding
On Benchmark Games, Gemini, and Declining Returns to Scale
Stranded Assets and the AI-Driven Gas Turbine Renaissance
Kedrosky Daily: Crypto Fear Hits Extreme as Market Drops 30 Percent
Kedrosky Daily: Crypto Fear Hits Extreme as Market Drops 30 Percent
Proxy Test 6
Kedrosky Daily: Bitcoin mining near break-even, MicroStrategy shares drop sharply
Sendy Test 23
Testing Daily Kedrosky
Sendy Post 13
Kedrosky Daily: Oracle’s backlog 58% OpenAI, big firms add 151K jobs small firms lose 88K
Sendy Test 12
Sendy test 4
Sendy Test 3
Kedrosky Daily: ChatGPT users 55+ hit 28 percent in Q3 2025, leads US AI usage
Testing
Media: Recent Bloomberg Odd Lots Appearance
Updates: GenAI Adoption Shifts, Chinese Models, etc.
Kedrosky Daily: Google leads AI model race 84 percent tech IP growth outpaces others
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: Asia’s emissions surpass West, youth disconnection rises US UK
On AI CapEx Apologists
Kedrosky Daily: Retail share in SPX 0DTE options tops 50 US equity risk peaks
Kedrosky Daily: Employer health costs surge fivefold, global power demand doubles
The Great Credit Convergence
Global Data Center Investment Passes Oil Investment
Kedrosky Daily: Employer health costs up 5x, electricity demand doubles by 2035
Meta: Purging of Dissidents vs Open Rebellion
Kedrosky Daily: AI data center funding gap 27 percent construction spending surges
Kedrosky Daily: China births drop 70% since 1963, AI firms hit $100B fast
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: NYC jobs shift to health care women 70+ marathon surge
Four Things: OpenAI's Backstop, CoreWeave CDS, Oregon, and Humanity's TAM
Kedrosky Daily: Labor growth plummets 80 percent, VFX jobs drop 33 percent
Kedrosky Daily: Grok lags in AI adoption, AI data center borrowing hits $126B
Kedrosky Daily: Grok lags behind ChatGPT Gemini AI tech borrowing hits $126B in 2025
Updates: Bragawatts, Nvidia Theater, Me Stuff, etc.
Kedrosky Daily: US weekend box office hits multi-decade low, bond maturities rise
Kedrosky Daily: US Box Office Hits Multi-Decade Low, Convertible Bond Maturities Rise
Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: Oman jumps from unlisted in 2015 to 4th in 2025, highlighting significant imp…
Kedrosky Daily (Commodities edition): Healthcare and service roles exhibit minimal core AI development compared to …
Kedrosky Daily (Commodities edition): AI recruiting tools dominate healthcare sectors like dental and nursing, high…
Four Ideas (Life sciences edition): AI Integration in Healthcare Tech and Diagnostics
Four Ideas (AI edition): AI Transformations and Market Realignments
Four Ideas (Macro edition): Interest Rate Moves and Structural Economic Changes
Four Ideas, Sunday Edition: AI Transformation in Healthcare and Industry Shifts
Oct 24, 2025 Update: Nvidia as Pop Mart, Power, Policy, etc.
Four Ideas (Commodities edition): Commodity Trends and Geopolitical Dynamics
Four Ideas (Life sciences edition): Healthcare AI, Health Tech Investments, AI in Healthcare, FDA Breakthrough Devices
Four Ideas (Macro edition): Emerging Macro Trends Impact on Non-Obvious Sectors
Four Ideas, Sunday Edition:
Quick Hits: AI Capex and Consumer Spending
Minsky Moments and AI CapEx
Four Ideas (Energy edition): Renewable Energy Grid Innovations and EV Shifts
Four Ideas (Commodities edition): Global Commodity Trends and Implications
Rougher Notes, Oct 15, 2025: Blackouts, TeraWulf, Debt, etc.
Four Ideas (Life sciences edition): Healthcare AI Innovation and Market Dynamics
Quick Hits: AI Capex is Eating ... San Francisco
Four Ideas (AI edition): AI Impact on Utilities and Travel
Quick Hits: An India of Incremental Power Ahead
Quick Hits: The Data Center Growth Slowdown
Four Ideas (Macro edition): Global Fragmentation, Reserve Diversification, Geoeconomics Impact, Industrial Growth
Four Ideas, Sunday Edition:
Quick Hits: Roger Rabbit's Data Center, Colo Spin, etc.
Why AI Capex isn't a Bubble: A Perez-ian Perspective
Four Ideas (Life sciences edition): Healthcare AI and MedTech Innovations
The Godfather and Oracle's Crap GPU Rental Returns
Four Ideas (AI edition): Unexpected Impacts of AI Advancements
Quick Hits: OpenAI's Mammoth AMD Deal
Four Ideas (Macro edition): Interest Rate Shifts, Geoeconomics, AI Adoption, Travel Experiences
Four Ideas, Sunday Edition:
LLMs, Shifting Baselines, and .400 Hitters
Quick Hits: 85% Margins for Data Centers? Yes, Please
Four Ideas (Commodities edition): Geoeconomic Shifts, Cocoa Rally, Commodity Traders, Gold Outlook
Quick Hit: Blackstone on Data Center Bubbles
Four Ideas (Life sciences edition): FDA, AI, Drone Delivery, Health Systems
Rougher Notes, Sep 30, 2025
Four Ideas (AI edition): AI-Driven Investment Shifts
Data Centers: More Money, Fewer Buyers
Four Ideas (Macro edition): Geoeconomic Strategies and Industrial Policy Shifts
Four Ideas, Sunday Edition:
Quick Update: Appearances, Financial Flywheels, etc.
Four Ideas (AI edition): AI-Driven Market and Policy Shifts
Four Ideas (Macro edition): Interest Rate Divergence, EM Currencies, EU Productivity, Real Estate Dynamics
Four Ideas, Sunday Edition:
Four Ideas (Energy edition): Solar Engineers, EV Battery Sustainability, Grid Innovation, Emerging Markets