Forethought

Could one country outgrow the rest of the world?

How quick and big would a software intelligence explosion be?

Better Futures

Introducing Better Futures

No Easy Eutopia

Convergence and Compromise

Persistent Path-Dependence

How to Make the Future Better

Supplement: The Basic Case for Better Futures

The Industrial Explosion

Is There a Half-Life for the Success Rates of AI Agents?

AI-Enabled Coups: How a Small Group Could Use AI to Seize Power

Will Compute Bottlenecks Prevent a Software Intelligence Explosion?

The AI Adoption Gap: Preparing the US Government for Advanced AI

Will AI R&D Automation Cause a Software Intelligence Explosion?

Will the Need to Retrain AI Models from Scratch Block a Software Intelligence Explosion?

How Can AI Labs Incorporate Risks From AI Accelerating AI Progress Into Their Responsible Scaling Policies?

Once AI Research is Automated, Will AI Progress Accelerate?

Three Types of Intelligence Explosion

How Far Can AI Progress Before Hitting Effective Physical Limits?

How Suddenly will AI Accelerate the Pace of AI progress?

AI Tools for Existential Security

Intelsat as a Model for International AGI Governance

Preparing for the Intelligence Explosion

Could Advanced AI Accelerate the Pace of AI Progress? Interviews with AI Researchers

Inference Scaling Reshapes AI Governance

Inference Scaling & the Log-x Chart

The Scaling Paradox

Human Takeover Might be Worse than AI Takeover

Should There Be Just One Western AGI Project?

What's Important in "AI for Epistemics"?

On the Value of Advancing Progress

Project Ideas for Making Transformative AI Go Well, Other Than by Working on Alignment

Project Ideas: Governance During Explosive Technological Growth

Project ideas: Epistemics

Project Ideas: Sentience and Rights of Digital Minds

Project Ideas: Backup Plans & Cooperative AI

AGI and Lock-in