Econbrowser

Employment, Heavy Truck Sales and Cautionary Notes

Further Deceleration in Nowcasted “Core GDP”

October NFP Guesses

Worse than 9/11, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and Pearl Harbor…

q-theory in a Time of AI

An Insight into the Vibecession and Aggregate Statistics Divergence

Stablecoins As a Rorschach Test

SecTrsy Bessent: “The American people don’t know how good they have it.”

Trump’s Economic Team – cont’d

Guest Contribution: “How Geopolitical Tensions Could Shape France’s Inflation Outlook”

Instantaneous PCE Core Inflation at 2.6%

Confidence Down in November, (preliminary) Sentiment (Slightly) Up in December

Business Cycle Indicators: Series at or Below Prior Peak

Deceleration in Nowcasted Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers, GDP

National Security Tariffs (Sec 232) on Toilet Paper?

Manufacturing Employment, Hours Going Down

Business Cycle Indicators: Industrial Production, Implied Employment, Alternatives

ADP Downside Surprise

“Are there no workhouses?” 2025 Edition

Peer Reviewed Articles of Kevin Hassett on Monetary Policy

Consensus vs. ARIMA(1,1,1): ADP Private Nonfarm Payroll

Recession with Decreasing Employment and Increasing GDP?

US Naval Deployment, December 1, 2025

Guest Contribution: “How will unsustainable US debt end?”

Alles ist verloren…

ADP Weekly Employment thru 11/8

Private Credit, AI, and Financial Stability

Small Firm Employment Falls Again

High Frequency Readings on Economic Growth

Clifford Winston: “Market Corrections Not Government Interventions”

Under Biden “…prices rose much faster than earnings”

Prospects for Computer Equipment Investment

Gaps: Above Potential GDP, or Below the “Natural Rate”

Waiting for Data: Schedule and Alternative Business Cycle Indicators

Confidence Collapse

Secretary of Treasury Bessent: No Recession in 2026

Raise the Yuan!

Forward P/E Ratios – Mag 7 and Others

Bitcoin 34% below Peak, 12.5% below January 1st

EJ Antoni’s Scary Picture … and a(nother) Emily Litella* Moment

What’s an Essential Worker (or Activity)? No October CPI, Employment Release, but We Get a Hole Where the East Wing Used to Be

Consumer Sentiment in November: Near Record Low

Manufacturing

EJ Antoni Continues to See a Vast Conspiracy at BLS

Cumulative Percent Growth in Private NFP from BLS, ADP Compared

Updated Business Cycle Indicators, Including Employment

Business Cycle Indicators and Nowcasts

SP500 and Bitcoin: Past Peak?

Rejoinder to Comments on House Price Affordability

Grampa Simpson on Whining Whiners about House Affordability

Taylor (1999) on Miran (2025)

Affordability, Illustrated

“Until we hear Brazil get mentioned, I wouldn’t get excited”

How Would One Detect Wag the Dog?

The Trump Agenda and the Housing Stock

Truflation’s “Strategic Adviser”: BLS should “…expand the use of public-private partnerships”

NBER BCDC Key Indicators – What Do We Know and What Do We Have Guesses For

Coffee, as of September 2025 (since next reading will be November)

No October Employment Situation and CPI Releases (Ever?)

EJ Antoni on “Improving” Economic Statistics

Torsten Slok’s (Slightly Late) Halloween Entry

Nowcasting the Core Price Level

Guessing NFP Growth

SNB-TCD Workshop: “Globalization and the economics of the external sector”

Negative Equity, and Other Things to Worry About

Economic and Trade Policy Uncertainty Spikes: Speculation

How Sensitive Is Economic Sentiment Respond to News?

Expectations, Current Situation, Sentiment Decline to Near Record Low Levels

Nowcasting Private NFP using ADP Data

DonaldTrump Rex (would be)

Housing in Recession: Interest Rates or Policy Uncertainty

ADP Private NFP and Implied BLS NFP

Why the Administration Is Happy Not to See the October Employment Numbers

Betting on Noise? Supreme Court and IEEPA Tariffs

Labor Market Indicators amidst the Shutdown

Guest Contribution: “Abundance”

Updating Antoni-St.Onge (2024): The 2022 Recession Is Over!

CA, NY, and the Nation: GDP vs. Employment

Growth Deceleration Relative to “Liberation Day”

Non-Federal Statistic of the Day: Recession Predictor?

ACA Premiums without Extension of Expanded Tax Credit

Trump: China to buy a “tremendous” amount of soybeans

Hi Frequency Readout on Consumer Prices, Thru 12 October

Everyday Prices Up 2.2% since Jan. 2025

CBO on Macro Effects of the Shutdown

Conference Board Confidence Down Slightly

Macro Implications of Withholding Contingency Funding of SNAP

States with Negative GDP, Employment Growth in 2025H1

What Economists Are Against the IEEPA Tariffs? What Economists Are in Favor?

The Strange Cases Wherein Trump Realizes Imports Lower Prices

“The Closing of the American Economy: Implications and Durability”

Trade Policy Uncertaint Before the Latest Trump Tantrum (Reagan Quote Edition)

EJ Antoni: Pro-growth Supply Side Policies Will Support High Stock Prices

CPI Release: Instantaneous Core CPI, Nowcasted Core PCE Up Relative to 2024M12

Imagine No IEEPA Tariffs

Circumventing the Trump Administration’s Data Suppression: Billion $ Weather/Climate Disasters Efforts

What If? An Equity Market Correction Like 2001

The Fog of Uncertainty, Ag Edition

Trade Expert EJ Antoni on Tariff Pass-Through

What Releases Have We Missed? What Will We Miss? And What Will Be the Impact?

EconoFact: “The U.S. Agricultural Sector Under Stress”

ARIMA(1,1,1) in BLS Private NFP vs. ADP Based ECM

Betting on Shutdown at n=42.8 days

US FX Intervention Thus Far in the Argentine Peso…

IMF World Economic Outlook October Forecast Out

Weekly Indicators of Economic Growth

Some Business Cycle Observables

Irony of Ironies: Trump’s War on the Big Mac

Policy Uncertainty during the Shutdown: Elevated

How Much Will We Lose Lending to Argentina?

FX and Gold Reserves in Q2

WSJ Survey: Below Trend Growth

Why a Missed Release Is Sometimes Problematic

Flying Blind, Graphically Illustrated

On Immigration Policies and the Ag Sector

Why I Think the Administration Would Be Happy to Let the October Employment Release Slip

EJ Antoni: Back to Smearing Data Sources

Memo from the Midwest: Thanks, Drumpf!

What Releases Will We Miss? (updated for 31 day shutdown)

Scary Picture?

Sentiment Mired at Global Financial Crisis Levels

Divergence in Employment Growth, by Firm Size

Big Data on Trump’s War on Consumers

Agricultural Exports through August

Not So Great Expectations: Farm Edition

What If the Supreme Court Strikes down IEEPA Tariffs

An Interesting Correlation: Heavy Truck Sales Growth as Recession Indicator

Sometimes I Think Trump Is Determined to Push the US into Recession: Heavy Truck Tariff Edition

Twenty Two Days in October

Delaying Employment Situation Release, CPI Release Next?

Business Cycle Implications from the ADP Release

FT-Booth GDP Forecast for 2025: 1.6%

Nowcasting Private NFP for September

September Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment According to ADP

Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Trade and the Future of the Global Economy [updated]

White House Pulls EJ Antoni Nomination to BLS Chief

World Bank: “Accelerating Investment: Challenges and Policies”

Guest Contribution: “How do UK and Australia relations with China react to US-China shocks”

CBO on Economic Costs of a Shutdown

Conference Board: “A sharp deterioration in consumers’ views of the current economic situation weighed on confidence”