Econbrowser
Kim Ruhl: “Rethinking Free Trade”
Retail Sales Rebound
PPI and CPI, Again
Monthly GDP Drops for Two Consecutive Months
Real Wages in June
CPI Release and PCE Nowcasts
How Much Is the Stock Market Boom Fueling Consumption?
GDP’s Trajectory: The View from Wall Street
The Sustainability of AI Investment amidst High Interest Rates
“Five Facts about the Uncovered Interest Parity Premium”
Canadian Employment Upside Surprise
Uncertainty, Risk during Trump 2.0
Summer 2026 Rollercoaster: Gasoline Price Edition
Signal or Noise: Imports of Computers, Related Goods and Semiconductors
US Recession Risk Dashboard
Canadian Tory Recession Call: Beware the Revisions!
US Dollar Reserves, US-Iran War +1 Month
Visualizing Trump’s Planned EEOB
Current Betting on Re-Opening by 9/1
Canadian GDP, NFP Recovers
The AI Boom: Keep a Watch on (Computer) Imports
CoRev on Global Climate Change: Might As Well “Lie Back and Enjoy It”
Imagine: AI Investment Spending Following Dot-Com Boom?
Calling Rick Stryker (and all other Global Climate Change Skeptics of Yore)
Real Wages since February Have Not Kept Up with Inflation
Business Cycle Indicators – Key NBER and Alternatives
Conference Board Index Still in Gloomy Range
Diesel 22.5% above Pre-War
Bubbles or Regime-Switching in Gold and Bitcoin?
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident, Consensus ADP
Brent More Contango-ey
Rate Cycles (Where Are We Now?)
Brent in Contango
Instantaneous PCE Inflation
Four Measures of Output: GDP, GDI, GDO, GDP+
June (Final) Consumer Sentiment
Consensus on Canadian GDP
Nowcasts/Forecasts of GDP
LLMs and IMF Advice, Dollar Trinity, Risk-On/Risk -Off and Loanly Govts: (Almost) Live-Blogging ISOM 2026
Business Cycle Indicators as of End-June
Guest Contribution: “1776”
Retail Sales and Retail Sales ex-Auto, Gas
Industrial, Manufacturing Production and Business Cycle Indicators
Small Firm Employment and Business Cycle Prospects
Sentiment Beats Expectations, Slightly
EJ Antoni: “E.J. Antoni: U.S. utility prices down 1.5% since Iran war began”
Imagining: Would a Biden “Drill, Baby, Drill” Regime Have Mitigated a Iran-War Induced Cost-Push Shock
Trump: “I Love the Inflation”
Invaluable New Geopolitical Risk Indexes: AI-GPR, GPR-Oil, and More
Headline CPI Inflation at Consensus, Real Wages Continue to Be Eroded
Slowdown in Australia
Monthly Business Cycle Indicators: Canada
Trump in Chippewa Falls: Promising Input Price Declines to Farmers
“Sustainable” Employment Growth Is Only at +73K
Yield Curve Steepening: Expected Inflation vs. Real Rates (or Something Else)
Employment and Wages: Alternative Measures
Large Upside NFP Employment Surprise and Business Cycle Indicators
“Technical Recession” Lessons of 2022 US for 2026 Canada
Proposing Section 301 Sanctions on… the World (or Most of It)
Have We Really Been in Recession since 2022? Antoni & St. Onge Revisited
Why We Pay Attention to Personal Income Ex-Transfers (and Why We Wait for Revisions)
US Ag Prospects
“Reassessing the Relationship Between Consumer Sentiment and Spending with a New Composite Index”
(A Lot of) Everything You Wanted to Know about Economics, but Were Afraid to Ask
QCEW and Measures of Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Freight Transportation Services Index Revised Down, Rising in April
Betting Odds for July 1st Re-Opening, Crude Futures
Price Indices and Expectations of the Price Level
Guest Contribution: “Americans can’t afford Trump’s inflationary policies”
Recession in Germany? Determination by Organization vs. by Prediction Market
Trump Dithers and Betting on Re-Opening by July 1st Crashes
Canada: Imminnent Recession?
Where to Find Business Cycle Chronologies for Countries
Peak in Personal Income ex-Transfers: September 2025 or January 2026?
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident Index
Eight Measures of the US Price Level
Brent vs. Gasoline and the Gasoline Stock Drawdown
Personal Income, Corporate Profits
Business Cycle Indicators: Personal Income Trending Down
A Natural Experiment? Markwayne Mullin Helps Out Fledgling Econometricians in Search of a New Dataset
How Long Can Consumption Continue to Rise Strongly as Income Growth Slows?
Kevin Hassett on Survey Sampling and Index Theory: He’s NEC — Not CEA — Chair, but Really?
Update: Grocery Price Outlooks Compared
ARIMA on Grocery Prices
Confidence Upside Surprise on Upwardly Revised April
How Glum? Bloomberg Consensus on Conference Board Confidence Index
The Empirical Content of Money Base Monetarism
A Technocratic Question for Fed Chair Warsh
EPU and News Sentiment Since the War
Did U.Mich Sample Overweighting of Democrats Lead to a Biased Reading on Sentiment, Pre-March?
Detrended Sentiment
Inflation Expectations Short and Long: Up
U.Mich Sentiment, Gallup Confidence Plunge
Why the February CBO Baseline Debt Will Be Off
“From Bust to Boom: Stock Market Participation and the Housing Boom”
Who Holds Federal Debt As of March 30
Where Should the 10 Year Treasury Rate Be?
The Change in 10 Year Yields: Up, Up and Away
Adventures in Conditional Forecasting
Mortgage Rates and Fuel Costs SitRep
Deficit, Debt w/o the OBBBA
Yield Curves under Trump 2.0
Why Are Oil Prices So Low?
Cliff Winston: Let Carmakers and Airlines Be “Free to Compete”
Musings on the Path of Real Retail Sales ex-Auto, Gasoline
Why Shouldn’t Yields Rise?
Gasoline Implications of a Higher EV Fleet Share
Trump in China: 磕頭?
Nowcasts of GDP Diverge
NY Fed, SoFIE Predicted April Y/Y Inflation
Ten Year Nominal and Real Yields Jump
A “New Normal” in Consumer Gloominess?
Industrial and Manufacturing Production Up: The Divergence between Employment and Output Continues
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-May
Guest Contribution: “Can Professional Forecasters See Productivity Revolutions Coming?”
Parsing the Retail Sales Release
“…Chinese restaurants in America today outnumber the five largest fast food chains in the United States all combined.”
The Correlation Between Hormuz Strait Reopening and the Inflation Breakeven
How Big of a Cost-Push Shock? WTI at $91.38 in March
Price Levels and Implications of the PPI Release
Grocery Prices (and Forecasts)
Price Levels Relative to January 2025
Real Hourly Wages for April
Anticipating Real Hourly Wages for April
Real Gasoline Prices Are (Relatively) Low; Gas Prices Are Rising Sharply
Hassett: GDP Growth “north of four, north of five, north of even six [percent]”
Strait of Hormuz Reopening Odds: Down Again
Guest Contribution: “Does the Yield Curve Still Predict Recessions? U.S. and OECD Evidence”
Trump’s Age of Uncertainty
Business Cycle Indicators – Employment and Coincident Index
U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Record Low (since 1952)
One Day in Trump’s Iran War
Section 122 Tariffs Struck Down
Farmer Sentiment in a Time of War, both Trade and Kinetic
Hamilton’s Net Oil Price (WTI) Variable
How’s That Trade War Going for Wisconsin?
EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, 5 May 2026
Naval Deployment As of 5/4 … to What End?
Four Measures of Aggregate Economic Activity
Why Focus on Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers?
Consumer Confidence in April
GDP, Personal Income and other Business Cycle Indicators as of May Day
A worried Econ Watcher
The Last Month’s June Brent and Kalshi Hormuz Re-opening Odds
Brent Front Month above $111
Hormuz Re-opening Odds and Brent June Futures
Where Will Brent Futures Open Today?
“Margaret in Love and War”: An Opera Premiere
Updated April Michigan Survey Results
One Year Inflation Expectations: A Survey of the Latest
Fertilizer Prices in Context
The Oil Shock in East Asia
Five Year Inflation Expectations, April 22
Retail Sales Surprise and Alternative Business Cycle Indicators
Today’s TACO Tuesday and the Markets
Gallup, U.Michigan, Conference Board Compared, Plus Morning Consult
How Badly Is the Russian Economy Doing?
Wisconsin Post-“Liberation Day”
Aizenman, Desbordes and Saadaoui: Quantifying Trade Destruction from Bombs & Bullets vs. Taxes and Sanctions
More on the Gasoline Price Outlook
Using Today’s Futures, Don’t Expect Gasoline Prices to Soon Return to Antebellum Levels*
What Drives the Administration’s Trend GDP Forecast?
Prediction Markets on Hormuz Strait and June Brent Futures: 6:30PM ET
Guest Contribution: “Is a Natural Resource Curse Crowding Out US Renewable Energy?”
Irrational Exuberance in Prediction Markets?
MacParity, January 2026
Unsettled Weather in the Midwest: So Glad Trump Cut 600 Staff from National Weather Service
Auto Prices – Adjusting for Quality and Mix
1.5% m/m Ann’d: What Headline CPI Inflation Have to Be to Restore Pre-War Trend by Dec. 2026
Industrial and Manufacturing Production and Other Business Cycle Indicators
“Flash Talks on Iran, Oil, and OPEC” (UW Madison, Thursday, 4:30-6)
GDP Projections: One of These Is Not Like the Others
The WEO Wartime Economic Outlook
Clifford Winston on “Where Did All the Affordable Cars Go?”
Everyday Prices Jump
Instantaneous Inflation in March
“U.S. to Blockade Ships Entering or Exiting Iranian Ports”
Detrended Consumer Sentiment
“U.S. Dollar Dominance in Trade Invoicing and Cross-Border Investments in SEACEN Economies
Economic Report of the President, 2026 Out on Monday
Republicans Hopes Spring Eternal (Iran War/Economics Edition)
Inflation in March, and a Year from Now…
Standardized Sentiment in the Time of Trump
Dollar Reserves in the Wake of Trump
Business Cycle Indicators – Final GDP, GDO, Personal Income
Prediction Markets on Trump Credibility Re: Reopening the Strait
The Single Factoral Terms of Gasoline*
Workers of the US: Were You Better Off in February 2026 than Today?
March CPI Inflation Preview: Q/Q AR at 5.2% to 5.9%
Various Measures of Employment
Upward Shift: Market-Implied Path of 3 Month SOFR, Pre-War vs. Now
“Liberation Day” Plus One Year
Economic Policy Uncertainty in the Wake of “F*****’ Strait” Post
Nonfarm Payroll Employment in 2026: More Volatile?
Daily Data on 5 Year Inflation Expectations
Trump Credibility Measured
Given Projected Population, Is the Administration’s Forecast Plausible?
So Much Winning: Guess I Should’a Bought My Airline Ticket Five Weeks Ago
The Troika Economic Forecast under Vought-Miran-Bessent
Manufacturing Employment and Hours
First Readings on March Data, and Business Cycle Indicators
Nowcast, Tracking of Private Domestic Final Demand (aka “core GDP”)
Business Cycle Indicators – Data before the War
Anticipating April 10 (March CPI Release)
Famous Last Words: “get your own oil”
Confidence Surprises Upside (Slightly)
Guest Contribution: “Oil Shocks Raise Recession Odds and Inflation Risks”
How Much Will Reported Confidence Decline in March?
113 Years of the Real Oil Price (WTI)
Brent: Closing in on Post-Strike Highs
S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratios
Federal Budget, Economic Report of the President, 2026 Coming Out April 3
What’s the Plan?
Five Year US Treasury CDS
“Geopolitics becoming ‘key risk’ for central banks – panel”
Sentiment Dives to Near “Liberation Day” Levels
The Administration Campaign to Push Down the Fed Funds Rate: “Computer Says ‘No'”
The Year (and 2 months) of Living Dangerously
Random Question: How Many People Won as the US/Europeans in this Game?
“The ECB and Its Watchers XXVI”
Naval Deployment as of March 23
Dollar Dominance in Central Bank Reserves
Guest Contribution: “Is Immigration Bad for America?”
Nowcasts and Forecasts
SOFR Path Change Relative to 2/27
Recession Probabilities: All around 30%f-35%
The Five Year Inflation Breakeven at 2.66%
Regular Folk Prices
Brent-Urals Spread Today:
Your Morning Petroleum Price Sitrep: Brent Prompt Nears $110
Deployment of ARG Tripoli, Betting on Hormuz Re-Opening
The Goods Trade Deficit Adjusted for Gold
Oil Futures in War
Miran’s Next Vote
Hassett on the Economic Impact of the US-Israel-Iran War
The Oil and Energy Intensity of US GDP
Instantaneous PCE Inflation with Nowcasts/Tracking
Towards Correction?
Pre-War/Conflict/”Excursion” GDP, Core GDP, and Nowcasts
Business Cycle Indicators: GDP Growth Downshifts, Consumption Slows, Downside Surprise
Probability of 2 Qtr Negative Growth in 2026 at Post-Strike High
Uncertainty Regarding Trade Policy Remains High
Some Numbers for SecTreas Bessent for Benefit Risk Assessment
Betting on Recession 2026: Up to 32% fm 21% pre-War
“How energy prices figure into the Fed’s interest rate decisions”
Grocery Prices Continue to Rise
Trump: “The straits are in great shape”
QCEW, ADP and CPS Readings on NFP, Manufacturing Employment: Not as Rosie
Economic Policy Uncertainty, Financial Risk, Geopolitical Risk, Expected Inflation and Oil Volatility
OBE: “Five Important Reasons Why the Trump Economy Is About To Really Blast Off”
Hamilton Net Oil Price (Brent)
Seems Plausible: Recession in 2026
Brent Prompt Futures Open at +$108
Uncertainty, Risk, Boots on the Ground?
Market Expectations of Inflation
So Tired of Winning: Gasoline Prices Today
Strait of Hormuz De Facto Closure
Alternative Business Cycle Indictors
NBER BCDC Business Cycle Indicators: Employment and Output Continue to Diverge
Downward Moves in Employment Paths: Beware the Population Controls and B/D Model
Closing the Strait of Hormuz?
Will Consumer Sentiment Take a Hit?
Betting on US Troops in Iran by Year’s End: 59%
Betting on Gasoline Prices: $3.50/gal. by Month’s End
Oil Prices: Level or Change?
On Day 5 of War, EPU and GPR Spiked
Gasoline Prices, 3 March 2026: Thanks, Drumpf!
Interpreting 2/27 in Basic IS-LM w/Exogenous Price Shock
Fed More Likely to Stay Pat?
Geopolitical, Financial Risk and Economic Policy Uncertainty
Oil Jumps 13%
One of These Is Not Like the Others: Employment
The Economy: When We Last Entered a Land War on the Asian Mainland
Core PCE Instantaneous Inflation at 3.6% in January, Same in February?
Interpreting the Shrinking Term Spread
Alternative Estimates of Q4 Output
News-Based Trade Policy Uncertainty Highest since April
Confidence and Sentiment: February 2026
Guest Contribution: “Understanding Bond-Stock Price Comovements”
Cautionary Notes to Avoid Rookie Economist Errors, Revised Edition:
Business Cycle Indicators: GDP, Personal Income, Mfg & Trade Industry Sales, Consumption
Section 122 Implementation in Context
On the Q4 Advance Release: GDP vs. “Core GDP” and Residential Investment
Where’s the Balance of Payments Emergency?
GDP continues to grow
On the Eve of the 2025Q4 Advance Release
Is Housing the Business Cycle (in 2026)?
2025 Trade Deficit at 2024 Levels
Guest Contribution: “Usury laws and Trump’s proposed cap on credit card interest rates”
Business Cycle Indicators: Output Surges ahead of Employment
Output Gaps, Again
SP500 CAPE at 40
Two Measures of Private NFP Compared
Quantifying Partisanship in Perceptions of Current Economic Conditions
The Recent Evolution of Ground Beef and Ground Coffee Prices and Tariff Rates in the U.S.
CPI Inflation at 0.69% Year-on-Year, Mid-Month February(?)
CBR Reduces Rates as Measured GDP Growth Declines
Nowcasted PCE Instantaneous Inflation Moving Away from 2% Target
Core CPI at Consensus
Ten Days to 2025Q4 Advance Release: Nowcasts, Forecasts
“Liberation Day” Interpreted through the Lens of the Benchmark Revision
Heritage Foundation Chief Economist: “Factors such as changes in exchange rates mean that foreign producers typically end up paying some (or most) of a tariff.”
Heritage Chief Economist Interprets Biden vs. Trump Employment Trends
Business Cycle Indicators
A Levels Perspective on the Employment Situation Release
Households under Debt Stress: Two Pictures
Miran: No “…material inflation from tariffs.”
If at 5pm ET, Trump Starts Posting about “Fake” Employment Numbers, Be Prepared
Announced Job Layoffs Attributed to AI
Is Accelerating Inflation Just around the Corner?
0.68%: Truflation Y/Y CPI Inflation Rate as of 8 February 2026
What Could Go Wrong? The AI Asset Price and Investment Boom
The Layoff Announcement-Labor Force Ratio and Recessions, 1989-2025
Nowcasting January Private NFP
USDA Forecasts Near Constant Farm Cash Income…As Long as We Dole Out $44.3 Billion
Trade Balance ex-Gold
Layoff Announcements: Do they Lead Actual Layoffs?
Guest Contribution: “Caligula Reincarnated”
Official GDP vs. Alternatives: China
Truflation Chief Economist: “Less Than 1 Percent Inflation? Yes.”
“When Tariffs Hit Home”
Private Employment Growth at a Crawl, Small Firms Gain, Manufacturing Down
More Tough Times for US Agriculture?
Business Cycle Indicators in the Absence of 2026M1 Employment
EJ Antoni on Warsh Nomination: “… a great pick”
Nowcasting “Core GDP”
Pass-Through
Import Trends: Output, Policy Uncertainty, and/or Tariffs
BLS Commissioner Nominee Brett Matsumoto
PPI Blows Past Expectations
Kevin Warsh on Executing Monetary Policy
Kamin & Sobel: “Termites are slowly feasting away at the foundations of the dollar’s dominance”
Confidence Tanks
Donald Trump Is Unworried about the Dollar’s Value
Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index Updated to 2023!
Uncertainty Drivers: Tariffs on Canada or Government Shutdown?
“Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs on Canada If It Does China Deal”
What Is Q3 Economic Output? Where Are We Going in Q4? And Other Known Unknowns
Guest Contribution: “The New Political Economy of U.S. Trade”
The Bond Market Is (So Far) Unconvinced
For Some, a Human Life Has Zero Value, but Corporation “Lives” Have Positive Values
“…[last month]’s [production] print still came in negative M/M – manufacturing is in recession:
Employment Growth Has Flatlined (If We’re Optimistic)
How Fast Can Trump Destroy US Exorbitant Privilege?
WSJ Economic Survey: Downside Risk in GDP
WSJ Economic Survey: The GDP Trajectory
Economic Consequences of IEEPA Tariff Strikedown
Real Retail Sales and the Business Cycle
Groceries Rose 9% m/m (annualized) in December
Bond Yields and Dollar and Odds on Powell
Gianluca Benigno: “Tariffs as National Security Tools”
“Talking Heads Are Missing Labor Market Strength”: Heritage Chief Economist
Wide Dispersion in Nowcasts and Tracking
We Are Well and Truly F****ed: Fed Edition
Six Measures of Nonfarm Payroll Employment: All Below Peak
Change in Federal Debt Held by the Public, Trump 1.0, 2.0, and Biden
Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment and Goods Exports under Trump 2.0
Accelerating Deterioration in Manufacturing Employment, Post-“Liberation Day”
The Average Effective Tariff Rate thru October
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment Growth Slows
Private NFP Change below Consensus, Previous Revisions Change Trajectory
“11th Annual West Coast Workshop in International Finance”
ADP Implied Private NFP, Philly Fed Early Benchmark, etc.
ADP Total NFP Employment below Consensus, Large Firm Flat, Mfg Down
Nowcasting Core GDP
Auto Loans Further Deteriorate
Russian GDP in Question
Six Estimates of Nonfarm Payroll Employment
The Year in Review, 2025: I wanted lower prices, and all I got is this lousy hole in the ground
Guest Contribution: “Why didn’t Trump’s tariffs crash the economy in 2025?”
The PRC’s Intimidation Campaign
The Heritage Foundation and the Economics Implosion Foretold
Corporate Profit Peaks and Business Cycle Peaks
2025Q3 4.3% q/q AR Growth in Context
EJ Antoni: “The truth about the Heritage Foundation’s economic principles”
A Holiday Memo: NBER BCDC and Alternative Indicators
More on the GDP Release: Compare against “Core GDP” and GDO
Good news from the GDP report
Fed Governor/CEA Chair (on leave) Miran: “Fed Risks Recession Without More Interest Rate Cuts”
On the Eve of the GDP Release: Forecasts, Nowcasts, Tracking
Chief Economist and Now Actg Director, Ctr Data Analysis, Heritage; & Chief Economist, Truflation
How’s Sector Employment Doing during This Promised Manufacturing “Golden Age”
The Man Who Would Be Commissioner*
Republican Sentiment: “The Sun’ll Come Out, Tomorrow”
Mysteries of the CPI Release
A Conjectured Sahm Index for November
Real Retail Sales Down, Again
The Employment Picture: We’d Better Hope the Powell Conjecture Is Wrong
Employment Declining in CA, NY
Nonfarm payroll employment estimates through November
Did Tariffs Actually Decrease Imports in September?
Employment, Heavy Truck Sales and Cautionary Notes
Further Deceleration in Nowcasted “Core GDP”
October NFP Guesses
Worse than 9/11, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and Pearl Harbor…
q-theory in a Time of AI
An Insight into the Vibecession and Aggregate Statistics Divergence
Stablecoins As a Rorschach Test
SecTrsy Bessent: “The American people don’t know how good they have it.”
Trump’s Economic Team – cont’d
Guest Contribution: “How Geopolitical Tensions Could Shape France’s Inflation Outlook”
Instantaneous PCE Core Inflation at 2.6%
Confidence Down in November, (preliminary) Sentiment (Slightly) Up in December
Business Cycle Indicators: Series at or Below Prior Peak
Deceleration in Nowcasted Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers, GDP
National Security Tariffs (Sec 232) on Toilet Paper?
Manufacturing Employment, Hours Going Down
Business Cycle Indicators: Industrial Production, Implied Employment, Alternatives
ADP Downside Surprise
“Are there no workhouses?” 2025 Edition
Peer Reviewed Articles of Kevin Hassett on Monetary Policy
Consensus vs. ARIMA(1,1,1): ADP Private Nonfarm Payroll
Recession with Decreasing Employment and Increasing GDP?
US Naval Deployment, December 1, 2025
Guest Contribution: “How will unsustainable US debt end?”
Alles ist verloren…
ADP Weekly Employment thru 11/8
Private Credit, AI, and Financial Stability
Small Firm Employment Falls Again
High Frequency Readings on Economic Growth
Clifford Winston: “Market Corrections Not Government Interventions”
Under Biden “…prices rose much faster than earnings”
Prospects for Computer Equipment Investment
Gaps: Above Potential GDP, or Below the “Natural Rate”
Waiting for Data: Schedule and Alternative Business Cycle Indicators
Confidence Collapse
Secretary of Treasury Bessent: No Recession in 2026
Raise the Yuan!
Forward P/E Ratios – Mag 7 and Others
Bitcoin 34% below Peak, 12.5% below January 1st
EJ Antoni’s Scary Picture … and a(nother) Emily Litella* Moment
What’s an Essential Worker (or Activity)? No October CPI, Employment Release, but We Get a Hole Where the East Wing Used to Be
Consumer Sentiment in November: Near Record Low
Manufacturing
EJ Antoni Continues to See a Vast Conspiracy at BLS
Cumulative Percent Growth in Private NFP from BLS, ADP Compared
Updated Business Cycle Indicators, Including Employment
Business Cycle Indicators and Nowcasts
SP500 and Bitcoin: Past Peak?
Rejoinder to Comments on House Price Affordability
Grampa Simpson on Whining Whiners about House Affordability
Taylor (1999) on Miran (2025)
Affordability, Illustrated
“Until we hear Brazil get mentioned, I wouldn’t get excited”
How Would One Detect Wag the Dog?
The Trump Agenda and the Housing Stock
Truflation’s “Strategic Adviser”: BLS should “…expand the use of public-private partnerships”
NBER BCDC Key Indicators – What Do We Know and What Do We Have Guesses For
Coffee, as of September 2025 (since next reading will be November)
No October Employment Situation and CPI Releases (Ever?)
EJ Antoni on “Improving” Economic Statistics
Torsten Slok’s (Slightly Late) Halloween Entry
Nowcasting the Core Price Level
Guessing NFP Growth
SNB-TCD Workshop: “Globalization and the economics of the external sector”
Negative Equity, and Other Things to Worry About
Economic and Trade Policy Uncertainty Spikes: Speculation
How Sensitive Is Economic Sentiment Respond to News?
Expectations, Current Situation, Sentiment Decline to Near Record Low Levels
Nowcasting Private NFP using ADP Data
DonaldTrump Rex (would be)
Housing in Recession: Interest Rates or Policy Uncertainty
ADP Private NFP and Implied BLS NFP
Why the Administration Is Happy Not to See the October Employment Numbers
Betting on Noise? Supreme Court and IEEPA Tariffs
Labor Market Indicators amidst the Shutdown
Guest Contribution: “Abundance”
Updating Antoni-St.Onge (2024): The 2022 Recession Is Over!
CA, NY, and the Nation: GDP vs. Employment
Growth Deceleration Relative to “Liberation Day”
Non-Federal Statistic of the Day: Recession Predictor?
ACA Premiums without Extension of Expanded Tax Credit
Trump: China to buy a “tremendous” amount of soybeans
Hi Frequency Readout on Consumer Prices, Thru 12 October
Everyday Prices Up 2.2% since Jan. 2025
CBO on Macro Effects of the Shutdown
Conference Board Confidence Down Slightly
Macro Implications of Withholding Contingency Funding of SNAP
States with Negative GDP, Employment Growth in 2025H1
What Economists Are Against the IEEPA Tariffs? What Economists Are in Favor?
The Strange Cases Wherein Trump Realizes Imports Lower Prices
“The Closing of the American Economy: Implications and Durability”
Trade Policy Uncertaint Before the Latest Trump Tantrum (Reagan Quote Edition)
EJ Antoni: Pro-growth Supply Side Policies Will Support High Stock Prices
CPI Release: Instantaneous Core CPI, Nowcasted Core PCE Up Relative to 2024M12
Imagine No IEEPA Tariffs
Circumventing the Trump Administration’s Data Suppression: Billion $ Weather/Climate Disasters Efforts
What If? An Equity Market Correction Like 2001
The Fog of Uncertainty, Ag Edition
Trade Expert EJ Antoni on Tariff Pass-Through
What Releases Have We Missed? What Will We Miss? And What Will Be the Impact?
EconoFact: “The U.S. Agricultural Sector Under Stress”
ARIMA(1,1,1) in BLS Private NFP vs. ADP Based ECM
Betting on Shutdown at n=42.8 days
US FX Intervention Thus Far in the Argentine Peso…
IMF World Economic Outlook October Forecast Out
Weekly Indicators of Economic Growth
Some Business Cycle Observables
Irony of Ironies: Trump’s War on the Big Mac
Policy Uncertainty during the Shutdown: Elevated
How Much Will We Lose Lending to Argentina?
FX and Gold Reserves in Q2
WSJ Survey: Below Trend Growth
Why a Missed Release Is Sometimes Problematic
Flying Blind, Graphically Illustrated
On Immigration Policies and the Ag Sector
Why I Think the Administration Would Be Happy to Let the October Employment Release Slip
EJ Antoni: Back to Smearing Data Sources
Memo from the Midwest: Thanks, Drumpf!
What Releases Will We Miss? (updated for 31 day shutdown)
Scary Picture?
Sentiment Mired at Global Financial Crisis Levels
Divergence in Employment Growth, by Firm Size
Big Data on Trump’s War on Consumers
Agricultural Exports through August
Not So Great Expectations: Farm Edition
What If the Supreme Court Strikes down IEEPA Tariffs
An Interesting Correlation: Heavy Truck Sales Growth as Recession Indicator
Sometimes I Think Trump Is Determined to Push the US into Recession: Heavy Truck Tariff Edition
Twenty Two Days in October
Delaying Employment Situation Release, CPI Release Next?
Business Cycle Implications from the ADP Release
FT-Booth GDP Forecast for 2025: 1.6%
Nowcasting Private NFP for September
September Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment According to ADP
Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Trade and the Future of the Global Economy [updated]
White House Pulls EJ Antoni Nomination to BLS Chief
World Bank: “Accelerating Investment: Challenges and Policies”
Guest Contribution: “How do UK and Australia relations with China react to US-China shocks”
CBO on Economic Costs of a Shutdown
Conference Board: “A sharp deterioration in consumers’ views of the current economic situation weighed on confidence”