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Posts

What Economists Are Against the IEEPA Tariffs? What Economists Are in Favor?

The Strange Cases Wherein Trump Realizes Imports Lower Prices

“The Closing of the American Economy: Implications and Durability”

Trade Policy Uncertaint Before the Latest Trump Tantrum (Reagan Quote Edition)

EJ Antoni: Pro-growth Supply Side Policies Will Support High Stock Prices

CPI Release: Instantaneous Core CPI, Nowcasted Core PCE Up Relative to 2024M12

Imagine No IEEPA Tariffs

Circumventing the Trump Administration’s Data Suppression: Billion $ Weather/Climate Disasters Efforts

What If? An Equity Market Correction Like 2001

The Fog of Uncertainty, Ag Edition

Trade Expert EJ Antoni on Tariff Pass-Through

What Releases Have We Missed? What Will We Miss? And What Will Be the Impact?

EconoFact: “The U.S. Agricultural Sector Under Stress”

ARIMA(1,1,1) in BLS Private NFP vs. ADP Based ECM

Betting on Shutdown at n=42.8 days

US FX Intervention Thus Far in the Argentine Peso…

IMF World Economic Outlook October Forecast Out

Weekly Indicators of Economic Growth

Some Business Cycle Observables

Irony of Ironies: Trump’s War on the Big Mac

Policy Uncertainty during the Shutdown: Elevated

How Much Will We Lose Lending to Argentina?

FX and Gold Reserves in Q2

WSJ Survey: Below Trend Growth

Why a Missed Release Is Sometimes Problematic

Flying Blind, Graphically Illustrated

On Immigration Policies and the Ag Sector

Why I Think the Administration Would Be Happy to Let the October Employment Release Slip

EJ Antoni: Back to Smearing Data Sources

Memo from the Midwest: Thanks, Drumpf!

What Releases Will We Miss? (updated for 31 day shutdown)

Scary Picture?

Sentiment Mired at Global Financial Crisis Levels

Divergence in Employment Growth, by Firm Size

Big Data on Trump’s War on Consumers

Agricultural Exports through August

Not So Great Expectations: Farm Edition

What If the Supreme Court Strikes down IEEPA Tariffs

An Interesting Correlation: Heavy Truck Sales Growth as Recession Indicator

Sometimes I Think Trump Is Determined to Push the US into Recession: Heavy Truck Tariff Edition

Twenty Two Days in October

Delaying Employment Situation Release, CPI Release Next?

Business Cycle Implications from the ADP Release

FT-Booth GDP Forecast for 2025: 1.6%

Nowcasting Private NFP for September

September Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment According to ADP

Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Trade and the Future of the Global Economy [updated]

White House Pulls EJ Antoni Nomination to BLS Chief

World Bank: “Accelerating Investment: Challenges and Policies”

Guest Contribution: “How do UK and Australia relations with China react to US-China shocks”

CBO on Economic Costs of a Shutdown

Conference Board: “A sharp deterioration in consumers’ views of the current economic situation weighed on confidence”