Calculated Risk
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November
Friday: No major economic releases scheduled.
Cotality: Homeowners With Negative Equity Increasing
Mortgage Rates: The New Normal
HVS: Q3 2025 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates
Trade Deficit Decreased to $52.8 Billion in September
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 236,000
Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims
FOMC Projections: GDP and Unemployment Revised Up; Inflation Down
FOMC Statement: 25bp Rate Cut
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
Wednesday: FOMC Announcement
Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*)
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November
BLS: Job Openings Unchanged at 7.7 million in October
Tuesday: Job Openings
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 1% in November
December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year
Housing December 8th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.7% Week-over-week
Sunday Night Futures
FOMC Preview: 25bps Rate Cut Expected
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week:
Schedule for Week of December 7, 2025
AAR Rail Traffic in November: "Continued Economic Uncertainty Reflected in Rail Volumes"
Q3 GDP Tracking: Mid 3%
PCE Measure of Shelter Declined to 3.7% YoY in September
Personal Income Increased 0.4% in September; Spending Increased 0.3%
Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in November; Unchanged Year-over-year
Friday: Personal Income and Outlays
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.0% Year-over-year
Cotality: House Price Growth Slowed to 1.1% YoY in October
Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 191,000
Thursday: Unemployment Claims
Heavy Truck Sales Collapsed in October and November
Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 15.6 Million SAAR in October
Asking Rents Soft Year-over-year
ISM® Services Index Increased to 52.6% in November; Employment in Contraction for Sixth Consecutive Month
Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in September
ADP: Private Employment Decreased 32,000 in November
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
Wednesday: ADP Employment, Industrial Production, ISM Services
Is the Future still Bright?
Final Look at Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales
Tuesday: Vehicle Sales
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below 2022 Peak
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 48.2% in November
Housing December 1st Weekly Update: Inventory Only Down 4.3% Compared to Same Week in 2019
Sunday Night Futures
Update: Lumber Prices Down 8% Year-over-year
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller House Prices Up 1.3% year-over-year in September
Schedule for Week of November 30, 2025
November Forecast: Vehicle Sales Down Year-over-year
Q3 GDP Tracking: High 3%
Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)
Five Economic Reasons to be Thankful
ICE First Look at October Mortgage Performance: "National delinquency rate fell"
Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity little changed"
Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in October
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 216,000
Wednesday: Unemployment Claims, Durable Goods, Beige Book
Retail Sales Increased 0.2% in September
FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $832,750 in 2026
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increased 1.9% in October; Down 0.4% YoY
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, PPI, Pending Home Sales
Bankruptcy Filings Increase 10.6 Percent
Every Housing Down Cycle is "unhappy in its own way"
Housing November 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Only Down 4.7% Compared to Same Week in 2019
Sunday Night Futures
DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven Increased 2.0% year-over-year
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
Schedule for Week of November 23, 2025
Q3 GDP Tracking: Close to 4%
Realtor.com Reports Median Listing Price Down Year-over-year
Friday: No Major Economic Releases
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.1% Year-over-year
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 220,000
September Employment Report: 119 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate
Thursday: Existing Home Sales, September Employment Report, Unemployment Claims
AIA: "Billings continue to decline at architecture firms" in October
Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October; What is the “Market’s” Estimate of R*?
FOMC Minutes: "Likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year."
Trade Deficit Decreased to $59.6 Billion in August
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
Wednesday: Trade Deficit, FOMC Minutes
LA Ports: Imports and Exports Down YoY in October; Exports Down YoY for 11th Consecutive Month
California October Home Sales "Highest Level Since February"; 4th Look at Local Markets
NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased Slightly in November, Negative territory for 19 consecutive months
Tuesday: Industrial Production, Homebuilder Survey
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October
Construction Spending Increased 0.2% in August
Housing November 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.3% Week-over-week
Sunday Night Futures
Update: Lumber Prices Down 8% Year-over-year
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q3
Schedule for Week of November 16, 2025
MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q3 2025
Q3 GDP Tracking: Missing Data!
Realtor.com Reports Median Listing Price Down Year-over-year
Friday: October Retail Sales and PPI will NOT be released
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 2.5% Year-over-year
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025
Thursday: No Weekly Claims or CPI Data
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
Wednesday: Mortgage Applications
The Next Financial Crisis
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October
Tuesday: Veterans Day
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 7% in October
November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year
Housing November 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.7% Week-over-week
Sunday Night Futures
AAR Rail Traffic in October: Carloads Flat, Intermodal Down
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week
Schedule for Week of November 9, 2025
Realtor.com Reports Median listing price "dipped slightly" year over year
Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in October; Unchanged Year-over-year
Revelio Labs: 9,100 Jobs Lost in October
Friday: No BLS Employment Report
Cotality: House Price Growth Slowed to 1.2% YoY in September
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.6% Year-over-year
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October
Thursday: No Unemployment Claims
Q3 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Increase Slightly
NY Fed Q3 Report: Household Debt Increased $197 Billion in Q3; Delinquencies "Elevated"
ISM® Services Index Increased to 52.4% in October; Prices Paid Very High; Employment in Contraction for Fifth Consecutive Month
ADP: Private Employment Increased 42,000 in October
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Services, Report on Household Debt and Credit
Lawler: Single-Family Rent Trends at INVH and AMH
House Prices to Income
Light Vehicle Sales Decreased to 15.3 Million SAAR in October; Lowest in 15 Months
Tuesday: Trade Deficit and Job Openings Will Not be Released
Fed October SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Stronger Demand for Some Loan Categories
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 48.7% in October
Housing November 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.3% Week-over-week
Sunday Night Futures
Update: Lumber Prices Down 3% YoY
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August
Schedule for Week of November 2, 2025
Q3 GDP Tracking: Flyin' Blind is Scary!
Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September
Realtor.com Reports Median listing price was flat year over year
Friday: Personal Income and Outlays will Not be Released
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.6% Year-over-year
Las Vegas in September: Visitor Traffic Down 9% YoY
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.8% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 10.2% below 2022 peak
Thursday: Unemployment Claims and GDP will Not be Released
FOMC Statement: 25bp Rate Cut
Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in September
NAR: Pending Home Sales Unchanged in September; Down 0.9% YoY
MBA:Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
Wednesday: FOMC Statement, Pending Home Sales
A few Comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices
October Forecast: Vehicle Sales Down Sharply Due to Decline in EV Sales
Final Look at Housing Markets in September and a Look Ahead to October Sales
Housing October 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.0% Week-over-week, New High for 2025
Sunday Night Futures
FOMC Preview: 25bps Rate Cut Expected
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.06 million SAAR in September
Schedule for Week of October 26, 2025
ICE First Look at September Mortgage Performance: "Delinquencies remain well below pre-pandemic norms"
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.2% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in September
NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions "Soften" in Q3
Cost of Living Adjustment increases 2.8% in 2026, Contribution Base increased to $184,500
BLS: CPI Increased 0.3% in September; Core CPI increased 0.2%
Friday: CPI
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.4% Year-over-year
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.06 million SAAR in September
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.06 million SAAR in September
Thursday: Existing Home Sales
AIA: "Softness persists at architecture firms" in September
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September
MBA:Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index
A Few Photos from Patagonia
Lawler: Early Read on September Existing Home Sales, and Update on MBS Yields and Spreads
NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased in October, Negative territory for 18 consecutive months
LA Ports: Imports and Exports Down YoY in September
Tuesday: Mortgage Rates Near 3-Year Lows
California Home Sales Up 6.6% Year-over-year SAAR in September
Housing October 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week
The Long and Winding Road
Schedule for Week of October 19, 2025
On Recession Calls
2012: Calling the House Price Bottom
2009: Calling the Bottom for the Economy
2007: The Trillion Dollar Bear
From 2007 and 2008: The Compleat UberNerd
Schedule for Week of October 12, 2025
A year ago: Lance Lambert Interviews Me on the Housing Market
December 2006: Tanta joined CR!
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease
The Long and Winding Road
Calculated Risk on Vacation until October 21st
Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined Slightly in September; Up 2% Year-over-year
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September
Tuesday: Trade Deficit (not happening), FOMC Minutes
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
October ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Firm" in September, Up 1.2% Year-over-year
Housing October 6th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week
Sunday Night Futures
AAR Rail Traffic in September: Intermodal and Carload Traffic Decreased YoY
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller House Prices up 1.7% YoY
Schedule for Week of October 5, 2025
Q3 GDP Tracking: Flyin' Blind
ISM® Services Index Decreased to 50% in September; Prices Paid Very High; Employment in Contraction for Fourth Consecutive Month
Realtor.com Reports Median listing price was flat year over year
Friday: Employment Report (No!), ISM Services
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.2% Year-over-year
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 10% below 2022 peak
Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 16.4 Million SAAR in September
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Vehicle Sales
Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year
ISM® Manufacturing index at 49.1% in September
ADP: Private Employment Decreased 32,000 in September
MBA:Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
A few Comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.7% year-over-year in July
BLS: Job Openings Unchanged at 7.2 million in August
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.7% year-over-year in July
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Job Openings
Fannie and Freddie: Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)
Final Look at Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 4.0% in August; Up 3.8% YoY
Housing September 29th Weekly Update: Inventory Unchanged Week-over-week
Sunday Night Futures