Calculated Risk
Final Look at Housing Markets in September and a Look Ahead to October Sales
Housing October 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.0% Week-over-week, New High for 2025
Sunday Night Futures
FOMC Preview: 25bps Rate Cut Expected
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.06 million SAAR in September
Schedule for Week of October 26, 2025
ICE First Look at September Mortgage Performance: "Delinquencies remain well below pre-pandemic norms"
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.2% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in September
NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions "Soften" in Q3
Cost of Living Adjustment increases 2.8% in 2026, Contribution Base increased to $184,500
BLS: CPI Increased 0.3% in September; Core CPI increased 0.2%
Friday: CPI
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.4% Year-over-year
Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.06 million SAAR in September
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.06 million SAAR in September
Thursday: Existing Home Sales
AIA: "Softness persists at architecture firms" in September
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September
MBA:Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
Wednesday: Architecture Billings Index
A Few Photos from Patagonia
Lawler: Early Read on September Existing Home Sales, and Update on MBS Yields and Spreads
NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased in October, Negative territory for 18 consecutive months
LA Ports: Imports and Exports Down YoY in September
Tuesday: Mortgage Rates Near 3-Year Lows
California Home Sales Up 6.6% Year-over-year SAAR in September
Housing October 20th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week
The Long and Winding Road
Schedule for Week of October 19, 2025
On Recession Calls
2012: Calling the House Price Bottom
2009: Calling the Bottom for the Economy
2007: The Trillion Dollar Bear
From 2007 and 2008: The Compleat UberNerd
Schedule for Week of October 12, 2025
A year ago: Lance Lambert Interviews Me on the Housing Market
December 2006: Tanta joined CR!
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease
The Long and Winding Road
Calculated Risk on Vacation until October 21st
Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined Slightly in September; Up 2% Year-over-year
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September
Tuesday: Trade Deficit (not happening), FOMC Minutes
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
October ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Firm" in September, Up 1.2% Year-over-year
Housing October 6th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week
Sunday Night Futures
AAR Rail Traffic in September: Intermodal and Carload Traffic Decreased YoY
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Case-Shiller House Prices up 1.7% YoY
Schedule for Week of October 5, 2025
Q3 GDP Tracking: Flyin' Blind
ISM® Services Index Decreased to 50% in September; Prices Paid Very High; Employment in Contraction for Fourth Consecutive Month
Realtor.com Reports Median listing price was flat year over year
Friday: Employment Report (No!), ISM Services
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.2% Year-over-year
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 10% below 2022 peak
Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 16.4 Million SAAR in September
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Vehicle Sales
Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year
ISM® Manufacturing index at 49.1% in September
ADP: Private Employment Decreased 32,000 in September
MBA:Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey
Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending
A few Comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.7% year-over-year in July
BLS: Job Openings Unchanged at 7.2 million in August
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.7% year-over-year in July
Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Job Openings
Fannie and Freddie: Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)
Final Look at Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 4.0% in August; Up 3.8% YoY
Housing September 29th Weekly Update: Inventory Unchanged Week-over-week
Sunday Night Futures